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第4章：Exchange Rates—Exchange Rate Systems

Broadly, exchange rate systems fall into two categories, fixed systems and floating systems.

As the name suggests, in a fixed system, the currencies involved are not allowed to appreciate or depreciate against each other.

If a currency is floating, then it 'floats' around taking any level it wants; its value is determined in the foreign exchange markets.

从广义上讲，汇率制度分为固定制度和浮动制度两大类。顾名思义，在一个固定的系统中，所涉及的货币是不允许相互升值或贬值的。如果一种货币是浮动的，那么它会在它想要的任何水平上“浮动”；它的价值由外汇市场决定。

Few exchange rate systems are totally fixed.

The eleven countries that are currently involved in the single currency are, in a sense, part of a totally fixed exchange rate system.

Their currencies were totally fixed as of 1st January 1999.

But one could argue that they are not part of a fixed exchange rate system any more; they have become one and share a single currency.

很少有汇率制度是完全固定的。目前参与单一货币的十一个国家，在某种意义上，是完全固定汇率体系的一部分。自 1999 年 1 月 1日起，它们的货币完全固定。但有人可能会争辩说，它们不再是固定汇率体系的一部分。它们已成为一体并共享一种货币。

Fixed exchange rate systems of the past have tended to be 'fixed but adjustable'.

This meant that the participants fixed their currency at some central rate, but were allowed to move it up and down within quite tight bands, say, +1%.

These systems tended to allow for 'realignments' as well.

If one of the countries kept recording current account deficits, meaning that their exchange rate within the fixed system was obviously wrong (too high), the currency would be allowed to devalue to a new fixed parity.

Obviously these 'realignments' were not regular occurrences.

If currencies were realigning every five minutes it wouldn't really be a fixed exchange rate system anymore.

过去的固定汇率制度倾向于“固定但可调整”。这意味着参与者将他们的货币固定在某个中心汇率上，但被允许在相当狭窄的区间内上下移动，比如 +1%。这些系统也倾向于允许“重新调整”。如果其中一个国家继续记录经常账户赤字，这意味着它们在固定系统内的汇率显然是错误的（太高），那么该货币将被允许贬值至新的固定平价。显然，这些“重新调整”并非经常发生。如果货币每五分钟重新调整一次，它就不再是真正的固定汇率系统了。

The next few sections will look at some past examples of these systems.

After that, we shall look at the advantages and disadvantages of fixed and floating exchange rate systems.

接下来的几节将介绍这些系统的一些过去示例。之后，我们将看看固定和浮动汇率制度的优缺点。

The Bretton woods system

布雷顿森林体系

This was the system set up after the Second World War to promote stability and help the countries in the world that had persistent trade imbalances.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was set up to oversee the system.

Every country chose its own initial exchange rate. This was done by choosing the number of units of their currency that they were prepared to exchange for an ounce of gold, valued at $35.

This is why the dollar was the currency in which all other currencies were expressed.

这是二战后为促进稳定和帮助世界上长期存在贸易失衡的国家而建立的制度。国际货币基金组织（IMF）的成立是为了监督该系统。每个国家都选择了自己的初始汇率。这是通过选择他们准备兑换一盎司黄金（价值 35 美元）的货币单位数来完成的。这就是为什么美元是所有其他货币的表达货币。

In any one year, a country's currency could move by +1% against the chosen rate.

Countries with severe and persistent current account deficits were allowed to devalue their currency and countries with persistent surpluses could revalue their currency, as long as the IMF agreed that the balance of payments were in 'fundamental disequilibria'.

Hence, exchange rates were fixed, but not totally fixed.

The system became known as the 'adjustable peg' system.

在任何一年中，一个国家的货币可能会相对于所选汇率波动 +1%。只要国际货币基金组织同意国际收支处于“根本性失衡”状态，经常账户严重且持续存在赤字的国家就可以贬值其货币，而持续盈余的国家可以重新评估其货币。因此，汇率是固定的，但不是完全固定的。该系统被称为“可调节钉”系统。

The IMF also had a lot of funds at its disposal (provided by the rich members of the system) to help poorer countries who had low reserves and whose poor international credit rating meant that it was difficult to borrow reserves from foreign countries.

The money provided was only a loan, and only granted under certain conditions, but it did stop failing countries from going under.

国际货币基金组织也有大量资金可供其支配（由该系统的富裕成员提供），以帮助那些储备低且国际信用等级低意味着难以从外国借入储备的较贫穷国家。提供的资金只是贷款，仅在某些条件下发放，但它确实阻止了失败国家的破产。

The system worked well, but some argued that it was a little inflexible.

In over twenty years, there were only six 'adjustments' in terms of revaluations and devaluations. Most famously, the UK devalued twice, in 1949 and 1967.

The second devaluation is remembered by most for the 'pound in your pocket' speech by the Prime Minister, Harold Wilson.

He was trying to explain to the general public that a devalued currency did not mean that 'the pound in your pocket' had been devalued (i.e. a pound was still a pound as far as UK shopkeepers were concerned).

Of course, he did not explain that the inflation that tends to be a by-product of a devaluation will, in real terms, reduce the amount that any given pound can buy in the shops.

该系统运行良好，但有些人认为它有点不灵活。二十多年来，升值和贬值的“调整”只有六次。最著名的是，英国在 1949 年和 1967 年两次贬值。大多数人记得第二次贬值是因为首相哈罗德·威尔逊的“口袋里的英镑”演讲。他试图向公众解释，货币贬值并不意味着“你口袋里的英镑”已经贬值（即，就英国店主而言，一英镑仍然是一英镑）。当然，他并没有解释说，贬值的副产品往往会导致通货膨胀，实际上会减少任何给定英镑在商店里可以买到的数量。

To be fair, it was a difficult balance for the IMF.

Too many 'adjustments' and the system would lose its stability, credibility and discipline.

But if there were too few (as many critics argued) then too many countries go through years of disequilibria and hardship.

If a deficit country could not devalue, then the only way to cut imports was to deflate the economy.

Import controls could be used, but the likely retaliation meant that this policy was self-defeating.

公平地说，这对国际货币基金组织来说是一个艰难的平衡。太多的“调整”，系统就会失去稳定性、可信度和纪律性。但是，如果国家太少（正如许多批评者所说），那么太多的国家会经历多年的不平衡和困难。如果逆差国不能贬值，那么减少进口的唯一方法就是让经济通缩。可以使用进口控制，但可能的报复意味着这项政策是弄巧成拙的。

Things started to go badly wrong in the early 70s. The system was based on dollars, which, according to IMF rules, could be converted into gold at the price of $35 an ounce at any time.

The USA, on whose gold the whole system was based, started to run up huge current account deficits, partly due to the Vietnam War.

Countries panicked, saw that the USA's gold reserves were running down and tried to convert as many of their dollar reserves into gold as possible. This could not go on.

The USA announced that the dollar would no longer be convertible into gold.

事情在 70 年代初开始出现严重问题。该系统以美元为基础，根据国际货币基金组织的规定，美元可以随时以每盎司 35 美元的价格兑换成黄金。美国作为整个体系的基础，开始出现巨额经常账户赤字，部分原因是越南战争。各国惊慌失措，看到美国的黄金储备正在减少，并试图将尽可能多的美元储备转换为黄金。这不能继续下去了。美国宣布美元将不再可兑换成黄金。

To cut a long story short, the system broke down after this.

The UK pulled out of the system in 1972 and a few years later, just about all countries were part of a floating exchange rate system.

长话短说，系统在此之后崩溃了。英国于 1972 年退出该体系，几年后，几乎所有国家都加入了浮动汇率体系。

Floating exchange rates

浮动汇率

The UK has had a floating exchange rate for every year since 1972 except for the two years of the ERM (see below).

Basically, the laws of supply and demand dictate the value of the pound on any given day.

自 1972 年以来，英国每年都有浮动汇率，除了两年的 ERM（见下文）。基本上，供需规律决定了英镑在任何一天的价值。

As explained in the last Learn-It, a floating currency should automatically eliminate any current account deficits or surpluses.

Of course, nowadays-capital flows far outweigh any currency flows required for trade so, perversely, the value of the pound can be rising even if the current account deficit is rising (the situation in the summer of 2000).

正如上一期 Learn-It 中所解释的，浮动货币应自动消除任何经常账户赤字或盈余。当然，如今的资本流动远远超过贸易所需的任何货币流动，因此，反常的是，即使经常账户赤字在上升（2000 年夏天的情况），英镑的价值也会上升。

Textbooks often refer to 'dirty floating' exchange rate systems.

This is where the exchange rate is technically free to float, but governments may intervene from time to time, so the currency does not float in a pure 'clean' market.

The floating is 'dirty' to a certain extent.

教科书经常提到“肮脏的浮动”汇率系统。这是汇率在技术上可以自由浮动的地方，但政府可能会不时进行干预，因此货币不会在纯粹的“清洁”市场中浮动。浮动在一定程度上是“脏”的。

Currencies rarely float totally free of intervention. The UK government will get nervous if the pound is too high.

Exporters will get very uncompetitive on price, which could cause firms to close down resulting in job losses.

In this case, the government might intervene by using pounds to buy foreign currencies and build up their foreign reserves.

This will artificially increase the demand for foreign currencies relative to the pound, and so the value of the pound should fall.

货币很少完全不受干预地浮动。如果英镑过高，英国政府会感到紧张。出口商将在价格上变得非常缺乏竞争力，这可能导致公司倒闭，从而导致失业。在这种情况下，政府可能会通过使用英镑购买外币并积累外汇储备来进行干预。这会人为地增加外币相对于英镑的需求，因此英镑的价值应该下降。

The government will also be apprehensive if the pound is too low.

This is great for exporters, but pushes import prices up to a relatively high level, causing inflationary pressures.

This time, the government will use some of their foreign reserves to buy pounds in the foreign exchange markets.

This will artificially increase the demand for pounds relative to other currencies, and so the value of the pound should rise.

如果英镑过低，政府也会感到担忧。这对出口商有利，但将进口价格推高至较高水平，造成通胀压力。这一次，政府将使用部分外汇储备在外汇市场上购买英镑。这将人为地增加对英镑相对于其他货币的需求，因此英镑的价值应该上升。

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关于Alevel经济笔记第四章：Exchange Rates后续的更新计划如下：