另维说：

哈喽你好，这里是金融从业者维。

我想要在毕业之后，找到一样东西，系统的、深入的学习下去，我想通过一份工作，在某一个领域变专业。往后你问我相关事，你会觉得，你的问题有价值，聆听有价值。

万万没想到，我飘啊飘啊飘，飘过了那么多地方，落在了一份这样的工作上。

却又好像一切都有预谋，一切已然预设，工作中所接触的一切，我过去都有涉猎，都略知一二，都不精，远远不如令我佩服的老板们。

我的上一份工作是审计，审计小朋友好微观，我每天睁开眼睛，只需要关注那几个科目，breakdown平不平，测算平不平，payroll从来不平……我有很多想不明白的问题——你不要问这么多问题，该你懂的知道怎么做就行了，不然工作做不完。

很快，我的数字记忆力变得很好，同时，我的世界跟着变得很微观，我对其他一切事务的感知都变弱了。

疫情最严重的时候，方舱医院在谱写奇迹，金银潭医院在生死急速。历史的车轮飞速旋转。而我在年审里出门忘记戴口罩，因为感受不到，也想不起有疫情。

我换了一份工作，视角瞬间从无敌微观切换到了无敌宏观。

这份工作，注意力在市场动向，经济局势，政策调整。全球的。

审计也很有趣，这份工作也很有趣。他们是对同一个世界、同一份信息的不同角度。

我每周都要翻译好几篇文章，都是老板们挑的（他们真的真的很厉害也很低调）。经允许，分享一小小部分给说好要一起成长的你。

本文选自Project Syndicate，6月8日的。

我按段落给你中英双语编排好了。对学英语有兴趣的伙伴，当个英语阅读练习吧，如果有语法或单词的问题，欢迎评论里说一说，我们一起讨论解答。

我第一次做翻译工作，好多专业名词不认识，好多句子不知如何通顺，如何专业的表达。如果你读着读着，发现有些地方翻译得好奇怪，那可能真的是我错了，请你一定要指出来。

哪种经济刺激更有效？

2020年6月8日

约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨（JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ）

哈米德·拉希德 （HAMID RASHID）

During the initial shock from COVID-19, it was understandable that governments and central banks would respond with massive injections of liquidity. But now policymakers need to take a step back and consider which forms of stimulus are really needed, and which risk doing more harm than good.

在COVID-19的冲击初期，政府和中央银行着重给市场注射流动性。但是现在，决策者需要退后一步，找出真正有效的、利大于弊的刺激措施。

NEW YORK – Governments around the world are responding forcefully to the COVID-19 crisis with a combined fiscal and monetary response that has already reached 10% of global GDP. Yet according to the latest global assessment from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, these stimulus measures may not boost consumption and investment by as much as policymakers are hoping.

纽约——世界各国政府都在针对COVID-19危机出台有力应对，其财政和货币的综合应对措施已达到全球GDP的10％。然而，根据联合国经济和社会事务部的最新全球评估，这些刺激措施可能不能如预期般刺激消费和投资。

The problem is that a significant portion of the money is being funneled directly into capital buffers, leading to an increase in precautionary balances. The situation is akin to the “liquidity trap” that so worried John Maynard Keynes during the Great Depression.

问题在于，很大一部分资金直接流入资本缓冲，导致预防性余额增加。这种类似“流动性陷阱”的现象，曾让大萧条时期的凯恩斯非常担心。

Today’s stimulus measures have understandably been rolled out in haste – almost in panic – to contain the economic fallout from the pandemic. And while this fire-hose approach was neither targeted nor precise, many commentators would argue that it was the only option at the time. Without a massive injection of emergency liquidity, there probably would have been widespread bankruptcies, losses of organizational capital, and an even steeper path to recovery.

现阶段针对疫情的刺激措施都是在相当紧急，甚至恐慌的状况下提出的。尽管这种消防水枪式政策既没有针对性，也不精确，评论家仍然认为这些措施是唯一措施。如果没有紧急流动资金的大量注入，可能会造成急性的广泛破产，组织资本大量损失。复苏之路会更加艰难。

But it is now clear that the pandemic will last much longer than a few weeks, as was initially assumed when these emergency measures were enacted. That means these programs all need to be assessed more carefully, with an eye to the long term. During periods of deep uncertainty, precautionary savings typically rise as households and businesses hold on to cash for fear of what lies ahead.

目前，我们已知疫情的持续不会以“周”为单位，紧急措施的有效性无法跟上疫情的影响。接下来的措施要从长远角度评估。在充满不确定性的时期，家庭和企业都会继续套现。

The current crisis is no exception. Much of the money that households and businesses receive in the form of stimulus checks will probably sit idle in their bank accounts, owing to anxieties about the future and a broader reduction in spending opportunities. At the same time, banks will likely have to sit on the excess liquidity, for lack of credit-worthy borrowers willing to take out fresh loans.

家庭和企业收到刺激经济的支票之后，因为忧惧未来和支出机会的减少，他们很可能不会使用。由于信誉良好的贷款人的减少，银行则会流动性过剩。

Not surprisingly, excess reserves held in US depository institutions nearly doubled between February and April, from $1.5 trillion to $2.9 trillion. For comparison, excess reserves held in banks during the Great Recession reached just $1 trillion. This massive increase in bank reserves suggests that the stimulus policies implemented so far have had a low multiplier effect. Clearly, bank credit alone is not going to lead us out of the current economic stalemate.

2020年2月至4月间，美国存款机构持有的超额准备金从1.5增至2.9万亿美元，几乎翻了一倍。大萧条时期的超额准备金仅为1万亿美元。银行储备的大量增加表明，目前已实施的刺激政策的乘数效应较低。仅凭银行信贷，明显不能帮助我们摆脱当前的经济僵局。

Making matters worse, today’s excess liquidity may carry a high social cost. Beyond the usual fears about debt and inflation, there is also good reason to worry that the excess cash in banks will be funneled toward financial speculation. Stock markets are already gyrating wildly on a daily basis, and this volatility could in turn perpetuate the climate of increased uncertainty, leading to still more precautionary behavior, and discouraging both consumption and the investment needed to drive the recovery.

过多流动性可能会带来更高的社会成本。除了对债务和通货膨胀的担忧外，多余的现金可能被用于金融投机活动。目前，股市每天都在剧烈旋转，这种波动可能将市场不确定性带来的恐慌持续扩大，导致更多预防行为，削弱推动复苏所需的消费和投资。

In this case, we will be facing a liquidity trap and a liquidity conundrum: massive increases in the supply of money and only limited uses for it by households and businesses. Well-designed stimulus measures could help once COVID-19 has been brought under control. But as long as the pandemic is still raging, there can be no return to normalcy.

我们面临流动性陷阱和难题：货币供应大量增加，而家庭和企业只能有限地使用货币。疫情控制得当之后，良好的刺激措施的作用可能会逐渐显现。但是，只要疫情还在，一切就不可能恢复正常。

The key for now, then, is to reduce risk and increase incentives to spend. As long as firms are worried that the economy will remain weak six months or a year from now, they will postpone investment, thereby delaying the recovery. Only the state can break this vicious circle. Governments must take it upon themselves to insure against today’s risks, by offering compensation for firms in the event that the economy does not recover by a certain point in time.

目前的关键，是降低风险并增加消费动机。只要企业担心半年甚至一年后经济仍会疲软，他们就会推迟投资，从而延缓经济的复苏。只有国家才能打破这种恶性循环。各国政府必须承担起自己的责任，在经济恢复之前向企业施以援手。

There is already a model for doing this: “Arrow-Debreu securities” (so named for the Nobel laureate economists Kenneth Arrow and Gérard Debreu) would become payable under certain predetermined conditions. For example, the government could guarantee that if a household purchased a car today, and the epidemic curve remained at a certain point six months from now, its monthly car payments would be suspended. Similarly, income-contingent loans and mortgages could be used to encourage the purchase of a wide range of consumer durables, including housing. Similar provisions could apply to real investments made by firms.

上述的措施，我们已有模型——“ Arrow-Debreu证券”（以诺贝尔奖获得者肯尼斯·艾罗和杰拉德·德布鲁的名字命名）。政府可以出面做出如下保证：一个家庭如果现在购买汽车，如果半年之后疫情还处在某状况，这个家庭可以停止还贷。同样，或有收入的贷款和抵押可以用来鼓励购买住房等耐用消费品。类似措施也适用于公司的实体投资。

Governments also should consider issuing spending vouchers to stimulate household consumption. This is already happening in China, where local governments across 50 cities are issuing digital coupons that can be used to buy various goods and services within a certain timeframe. The expiration date makes them potent stimulants of consumption and aggregate demand in the short term – when it is needed most.

政府还可以考虑发行消费券以刺激家庭消费。中国已经采取了这个措施，中国政府在50个城市发行了数字优惠券。特定时间内，优惠券可以购买各种商品和服务。有限的期限使优惠券称为短期内有效刺激消费和总需求的手段。

With the pandemic likely to last much longer than was originally assumed, still more stimulus will be necessary. Although the United States, for example, has already spent $3 trillion on various forms of assistance, without more – and, one hopes, better-designed – measures, that money will have merely prolonged the lives of many enterprises by a few months, rather than actually saving them.

由于疫情的不可控超过预期，我们有必要采取更多刺激措施。例如，虽然美国已经花费了3万亿美元但如果没有更多更好的持续措施，这笔钱对企业而言只有几个月的续命能力，而无法真正使他们起死回生。

One approach that has been working in several countries is to provide assistance to firms on the condition that they retain their workers, supporting wage bills and other costs in proportion to an enterprise’s decrease in revenue. In the US, Representative Pramila Jayapal, a congresswoman from Washington State, has proposed legislation along these lines, as have several senators.

多国目前已经采取的有效方式，是在帮助企业不裁员的情况下，对企业工资和成本按收入下降的比例提供帮助。在美国，华盛顿州议员Pramila Jayapal等都提出了类似的立法建议。

Poorly designed stimulus programs are not just ineffective, but potentially dangerous. Bad policies can contribute to inequality, sow instability, and undermine political support for government precisely when it is needed to prevent the economy from falling into a prolonged recession. Fortunately, there are alternatives. But whether governments will take them up remains to be seen.

设计不当的刺激措施不仅无效，而且潜在危险巨大。可能导致不平等，为社会不稳定埋下隐患，在政府最需要支持以防止经济陷入长期衰退的时期，削弱政府的政治影响力。我们拥有可行的好对策，但政府是否会采纳还有待观察。

The views expressed here do not reflect the views of the United Nations or its member states.

这里表达的观点并不反映联合国或其会员国的观点